Sarasota Economic update

On Tuesday, June 30, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 49.3 in June from a slightly revised 54.8 in May. Economists had expected an increase to 55. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Standard & Poor’s / Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index dropped 18.1% from April 2008 to April 2009. It was the third straight month the index didn’t post record drops, indicating that the slump in home values might be easing.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of manufacturing activity rose to 44.8 in June from 42.8 in May. Though any reading below 50 signals contraction, it was the sixth consecutive monthly increase from a record low of 32.9 in December.

The Commerce Department reported total construction spending fell 0.9% in May. Economists had expected a 0.5% decline. Meanwhile, construction spending in April was downwardly revised to a 0.6% gain. Also, a March increase of 0.4% was revised to a 0.4% drop.

The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 0.1% to 90.7 in May from an upwardly revised 90.6 in April. It was the fourth consecutive monthly increase after the index hit a record low in January.

The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose 1.2% in May, after a revised 0.5% increase in April. It was the first back-to-back increase in nearly a year.

The Labor Department reported the jobless rate rose to 9.5% in June from 9.4% in May. That’s the highest level since August 1983.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer credit on July 8 and wholesale trade on July 9.

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Last Week in the News – May 29, 2009

On Tuesday, May 26, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 54.9 in May from an upwardly revised 40.8 in April. It was the biggest increase in six years. Economists had expected an increase to 42.3. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Standard & Poor’s / Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index dropped 18.7% from March 2008 to March 2009. It was the second straight month the index didn’t post record drops, indicating that the slump in home values might be easing.

The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 2.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million from 4.55 million in March. Economists had expected an annualized rate of 4.66 million homes.

Orders for durable goods, items expected to last three or more years, rose 1.9% in April after a revised lower 2.1% drop in March. This was the second increase in the last three months after having recorded six straight declines. Economists had anticipated orders for durable goods to rise only 0.5%.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to 623,000 in the week ending May 23 from a revised figure of 636,000 in the previous week. The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits in the week ending May 16 rose to 6.78 million, a record-high figure for the 17th straight week.

New home sales rose 0.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 351,000 in March. Economists had expected a sales pace of 360,000 units.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending on June 1, pending home sales on June 2 and factory orders on June 3.