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Sarasota Economic update

July 6, 2009 By Leave a Comment

On Tuesday, June 30, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 49.3 in June from a slightly revised 54.8 in May. Economists had expected an increase to 55. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Standard & Poor’s / Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index dropped 18.1% from April 2008 to April 2009. It was the third straight month the index didn’t post record drops, indicating that the slump in home values might be easing.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of manufacturing activity rose to 44.8 in June from 42.8 in May. Though any reading below 50 signals contraction, it was the sixth consecutive monthly increase from a record low of 32.9 in December.

The Commerce Department reported total construction spending fell 0.9% in May. Economists had expected a 0.5% decline. Meanwhile, construction spending in April was downwardly revised to a 0.6% gain. Also, a March increase of 0.4% was revised to a 0.4% drop.

The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 0.1% to 90.7 in May from an upwardly revised 90.6 in April. It was the fourth consecutive monthly increase after the index hit a record low in January.

The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose 1.2% in May, after a revised 0.5% increase in April. It was the first back-to-back increase in nearly a year.

The Labor Department reported the jobless rate rose to 9.5% in June from 9.4% in May. That’s the highest level since August 1983.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer credit on July 8 and wholesale trade on July 9.

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Last Week in the News

May 4, 2009 By Leave a Comment

On Tuesday, April 28, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose 12.3 points to 39.2 in April. Economists had expected the index to increase to 29.5. It is the highest level since a November reading of 44.7 and is the largest jump since a gain of 13 points in November 2005. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Commerce Department announced Wednesday that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — decreased at an annual rate of 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009. This follows a 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. It marked the worst two-quarter performance since 1957-58. One positive aspect to the GDP numbers was a 2.2% increase in consumer spending.

The Labor Department said initial claims for unemployment benefits fell in the week ending April 25 to 631,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised figure of 645,000. For the week ending April 18, the number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits increased 133,000 to 6.271 million.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose in April to 65.1 from 57.3 in March. Economists had forecasted a reading of 61.9. It was the highest reading since September 2008 and the biggest one-month gain since October 2006. The index has rebounded significantly from a 28-year low of 55.3 in November 2008.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of manufacturing activity rose in April to 40.1 from 36.3 in March. Though any reading below 50 signals contraction, it was the fourth consecutive monthly increase from a record low of 32.9 in December.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending and pending home sales on May 4, consumer credit on May 7 and wholesale trade on May 8.

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Last Week in the News

April 6, 2009 By Leave a Comment

The Commerce Department reported factory orders rose a solid 1.8% in February, reversing six straight monthly declines. The report was considerably better than the 1.1% decline economists had expected.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, rose 2.1% to 82.1 in February. The reading is 1.4% below February 2008 when it was 83.3.

NAR’s housing affordability index rose 0.9% to a record high of 173.5 in February from an upwardly revised index of 172.6 in January. The index is 36.3% higher than a year ago and is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.

The Institute for Supply Management reported the monthly index of manufacturing activity rose in March to 36.3 from 35.8 in February. Though any reading below 50 signals contraction, it was the third consecutive monthly increase from a record low of 32.9 in December. The group’s gauge of new orders rose significantly to 41.2 in March from 33.1 in February. The reading — the first time the indicator has been above 40 in seven months — points to further improvement in durable goods orders.

The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose slightly to 26 in March from an upwardly revised 25.3 in February. The index was benchmarked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.

The Commerce Department reported total construction spending fell 0.9% in February. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline but much less than the 1.8% decrease economists had anticipated.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the nation’s unemployment rate increased to 8.5% in March from 8.1% in February. Businesses cut 663,000 jobs in March. This is the nation’s highest unemployment rate since November of 1983.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer credit on April 7, wholesale trade on April 8 and international trade on April 9.

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Economic Update

March 30, 2009 By Leave a Comment

On Monday, March 23, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose 5.1% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million, from 4.49 million in January. Economists had expected an annualized rate of 4.45 million homes.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ending March 20 increased 32% to 1,159.4 from 876.9 the previous week. Purchase volume rose 4.2% to 267.8 from 257.1 the previous week, while refinancing applications jumped 42% to 6,363.2 from 4,497.6.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods, items expected to last three or more years, jumped 3.4% in February. It was the strongest one-month gain in 14 months and the report breaks a record six consecutive months of decline. Economists had anticipated orders for durable goods to fall 2%. Among the areas of strong growth were orders for heavy machinery, up 13.5%, and demand for computers, up 10.1%.

New home sales unexpectedly rose 4.7% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000 units, according to a report by the Commerce Department. Analysts had expected a drop to 300,000 units in February. Also, the results for January were revised upward to 322,000. Nevertheless, that figure represents the slowest monthly pace since record keeping began in 1963.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department announced its final revision to the fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed the U.S. economy decreased at an annual rate of 6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2008. It was the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1982, when output contracted 6.4%. For all of 2008, the economy grew 1.1%.

Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on consumer confidence on March 31, pending home sales on April 1 and factory orders on April 2.

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